NMI® at 55%; GDP Growing at 2.2%; December Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 57.2%; New Orders Index at 54.9%; Employment Index at 55.2%

TEMPE, Ariz., Jan. 7, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 119th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®).

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management(® )(ISM(®)) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The NMI(®) registered 55 percent, which is 1.1 percentage points higher than the November reading of 53.9 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 57.2 percent, a 5.6-percentage point increase compared to the November reading of 51.6 percent, reflecting growth for the 125th consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 54.9 percent, 2.2 percentage points lower than the reading of 57.1 percent in November. The Employment Index decreased 0.3 percentage point in December to 55.2 percent from the November reading of 55.5 percent. The Prices Index reading of 58.5 percent is the same as the November figure, indicating that prices increased in December for the 31st consecutive month. According to the NMI(®), 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector had an uptick in growth in December. The respondents are positive about the potential resolution on tariffs. Capacity constraints have eased a bit; however, respondents continue to have difficulty with labor resources."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 11 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in December -- listed in order -- are: Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; and Finance & Insurance. The six industries that reported a decrease in December -- listed in order -- are: Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Mining; and Construction.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

    --  "Growth remains steady. While late-year pricing-increase proposals were
        either flat or in the low single digits, most have been mitigated."
        (Accommodation & Food Services)
    --  "Weather and the holiday season have had an impact on residential new
        construction sales and production. While demand is outstripping supply
        in the housing market, business is down due to global trade insecurity
        causing affordability, labor and cost pressures." (Construction)
    --  "Supply [is] good. Holiday sales below plan." (Information)
    --  "Business activity and growth in our business continues to expand."
        (Management of Companies & Support Services)
    --  "Our company's production, sales and purchasing [activities] are back to
        normal. Maintenance, planned and otherwise, is driving the usual
        necessity for spare parts." (Mining)
    --  "New prospects have improved this month, although continuing uncertainty
        is causing clients to delay confirmation." (Professional, Scientific &
        Technical Services)
    --  "Budgets and business accelerating." (Public Administration)
    --  "The shorter-than-normal holiday season tightens sales opportunities;
        however, initial trends have been favorable." (Retail Trade)
    --  "We are seeing extended lead times for already purchased materials
        across the board. Suppliers, as well, are warning that they are seeing
        longer lead times for engineered and manufactured goods." (Utilities)
    --  "Overall business is down from this time last year, but sales have
        increased over the last month, causing more buys with our suppliers."
        (Wholesale Trade)


                                                    
         
              ISM(R) NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE

                                         
            
           COMPARISON OF ISM(R) NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM(R) MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*

                                                                    
            
              December 2019



     Index                                              
            
              Non-Manufacturing                                        Manufacturing


             
            Series         
            Series   
         Percent                                                                                     
            Series   
           Series   
        Percent
                  Index                   Index           Point                                                                                               Index            Index          Point
                                                  Change                                              Rate of Change               
        Trend**                                                          Change
               
            Dec            
            Nov                                                                                                        
            Dec      
           Nov
                                                                     
            Direction                                            
        (Months)



     
         NMI(R)/PMI(R)                       55.0             53.9                  +1.1           
            Growing               
            Faster                    119              47.2            48.1       -0.9



     
         Business Activity/                  57.2             51.6                  +5.6           
            Growing               
            Faster                    125              43.2            49.1       -5.9


     
         Production



     
         New Orders                          54.9             57.1                  -2.2           
            Growing               
            Slower                    125              46.8            47.2       -0.4



     
         Employment                          55.2             55.5                  -0.3           
            Growing               
            Slower                     70              45.1            46.6       -1.5



     
         Supplier Deliveries                 52.5             51.5                  +1.0           
            Slowing               
            Faster                      7              54.6            52.0       +2.6



     
         Inventories                         51.0             50.5                  +0.5           
            Growing               
            Faster                      5              46.5            45.5       +1.0



     
         Prices                              58.5             58.5                   0.0         
            Increasing               
            Same                      31              51.7            46.7       +5.0



     
         Backlog of Orders                   47.5             48.5                  -1.0         
            Contracting             
            Faster                      3              43.3            43.0       +0.3



     
         New Export Orders                   51.0             52.0                  -1.0           
            Growing               
            Slower                      2              47.3            47.9       -0.6



     
         Imports                             48.0             45.0                  +3.0         
            Contracting             
            Slower                      4              48.8            48.3       +0.5



     
         Inventory Sentiment                 60.0             58.5                  +1.5          
            Too High               
            Faster                    270               N/A            N/A       N/A



     
         Customers' Inventories               N/A             N/A                  N/A                             N/A                            N/A             N/A             41.1            45.0       -3.9



     
         Overall Economy                                                                                                     
        Growing                
            Faster                   125



     
         Non-Manufacturing Sector                                                                                            
        Growing                
            Faster                   119

*Non-Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(® )data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(® )data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
**Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Beef Products; Cheese Products (2); Fuel; and Oriented Strand Board.

Commodities Down in Price
Lettuce; and Steel Products (6).

Commodities in Short Supply
Blades; Construction Contractors (2); Construction Subcontractors (24); IV Solutions (3); Labor (15); Labor -- Construction (45); Labor -- Temporary (6); and Pharmaceuticals (4).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

DECEMBER 2019 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI
)In December, the NMI(®) registered 55 percent, 1.1 percentage points higher than the 53.9 percent in November. The non-manufacturing sector grew for the 119th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

An NMI(® )above 48.6 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the December NMI(®) indicates growth for the 125th consecutive month in the overall economy and expansion in the non-manufacturing sector for the 119th consecutive month. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the NMI(®) and the overall economy indicates that the NMI(®) for December (55 percent) corresponds to a 2.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

NMI® HISTORY


                Month   NMI                                         Month NMI

                                     (R)                                      (R)


           Dec
           2019                     55.0                 
     Jun 2019           55.1


           Nov
           2019                     53.9                 
     May 2019           56.9


     Oct
      2019                          54.7                 
     Apr 2019           55.5


           Sep
           2019                     52.6                 
     Mar 2019           56.1


           Aug
           2019                     56.4                 
     Feb 2019           59.7


     Jul
      2019                          53.7                 
     Jan 2019           56.7


                      
          Average for 12 months - 55.5

                           
              High - 59.7

                           
              Low - 52.6

Business Activity
ISM(®)'s Business Activity Index registered 57.2 percent in December, an increase of 5.6 percentage points from the November reading of 51.6 percent. This represents growth in business activity for the 125th consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: "Success in converting sales efforts into contracts" and "November was unusually low, but December has rebounded back to where business should have been."

The 10 industries reporting growth of business activity in December -- listed in order -- are: Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; and Construction. The seven industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of December -- listed in order -- are: Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Utilities; and Mining.


      Business Activity 
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower    
     Index



     Dec 2019                  27        52          21        57.2



     Nov 2019                  24        56          20        51.6



     Oct 2019                  30        52          18        57.0



     Sep 2019                  27        60          13        55.2

New Orders
ISM(®)'s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index registered 54.9 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the November reading of 57.1 percent. New orders grew for the 125th consecutive month, at a slower rate compared with November. Comments from respondents include: "Attributing slowdown to end of year" and "Lower as we lean into the holiday season due to customer schedules."

The 10 industries reporting growth of new orders in December -- listed in order -- are: Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Utilities. The six industries reporting contraction in December -- listed in order -- are: Educational Services; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Other Services; and Mining.



     New Orders 
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower    
     Index



     Dec 2019           25        55          20        54.9



     Nov 2019           28        57          15        57.1



     Oct 2019           26        56          18        55.6



     Sep 2019           28        56          16        53.7

Employment
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 70th consecutive month. ISM(®)'s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 55.2 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the November reading of 55.5 percent. Ten industries reported increased employment, and six industries reported decreased employment. Comments from respondents include: "Matching resources to strong demand for 2019 that is expected to continue in 2020" and "Difficult to find qualified candidates in some fields. Commercial driver's license truck drivers with good driving records are hard to find due to market demand."

The 10 industries reporting an increase in employment in December -- listed in order -- are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; and Transportation & Warehousing. The six industries reporting a reduction in employment in December -- listed in order -- are: Educational Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Information; Public Administration; and Finance & Insurance.



     Employment 
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower    
     Index



     Dec 2019           21        67          12        55.2



     Nov 2019           21        66          13        55.5



     Oct 2019           22        65          13        53.7



     Sep 2019           21        60          19        50.4

Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52.5 percent, which is 1 percentage point higher than the 51.5 percent reported in November. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "Requested that suppliers ship before the holiday period" and "Increase in work and longer lead times for materials."

The eight industries reporting slower deliveries in December -- listed in order -- are: Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Wholesale Trade. The three industries reporting faster deliveries in December are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Seven industries reported no change in December compared to November.


      Supplier Deliveries 
     %Slower  
     %Same   
     %Faster   
     Index



     Dec 2019                     9        87           4        52.5



     Nov 2019                     8        87           5        51.5



     Oct 2019                     8        89           3        52.5



     Sep 2019                     8        86           6        51.0

Inventories
ISM(®)'s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index grew in December, registering 51 percent, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 50.5 percent reported in November. Of the total respondents in December, 31 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "Only slightly higher, but within the range we want to see based on the activity" and "Minimizing inventory for end-of-year count."

The eight industries reporting an increase in inventories in December -- listed in order -- are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Information; and Retail Trade. The nine industries reporting a decrease in inventories in December -- listed in order -- are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade.



     Inventories 
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower    
     Index



     Dec 2019            22        58          20        51.0



     Nov 2019            20        61          19        50.5



     Oct 2019            19        63          18        50.5



     Sep 2019            20        66          14        53.0

Prices
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for materials and services increased in December for the 31st consecutive month. ISM(®)'s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index registered 58.5 percent; the same figure reported in November.

The nine non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of December -- listed in order -- are: Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Retail Trade; Information; Finance & Insurance; and Public Administration. The three industries that reported a decrease in prices in December are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Six industries reported no change in December compared to November.



     Prices   
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower   
     Index



     Dec 2019         16        79          5        58.5



     Nov 2019         18        76          6        58.5



     Oct 2019         19        74          7        56.6



     Sep 2019         24        70          6        60.0

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
ISM(®)'s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index contracted in December for the fourth time in the last five months. The index registered 47.5 percent, which is 1 percentage point lower than the 48.5 reported in November. Of the total respondents in December, 37 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The seven industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in December -- listed in order -- are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Construction; and Finance & Insurance. The seven industries that reported a decrease in backlogs in December -- listed in order -- are: Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Other Services; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Mining; and Transportation & Warehousing.


      Backlog of Orders 
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower    
     Index



     Dec 2019                  11        73          16        47.5



     Nov 2019                  14        69          17        48.5



     Oct 2019                  14        69          17        48.5



     Sep 2019                  18        72          10        54.0

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based personnel grew in December. The New Export Orders Index registered 51 percent, 1 percentage point lower than the 52 percent reported in November. Of the total respondents in December, 60 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The four industries reporting an increase in new export orders in December are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The five industries that reported a decrease in exports in December are: Utilities; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; and Wholesale Trade. Nine industries reported no change in exports in December compared to November.


      New Export Orders 
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower   
     Index



     Dec 2019                  10        82          8        51.0



     Nov 2019                  13        78          9        52.0



     Oct 2019                   8        84          8        50.0



     Sep 2019                  11        82          7        52.0

Imports
The Imports Index contracted for the fourth consecutive month, registering 48 percent in December, 3 percentage points higher than November's figure of 45 percent. Fifty-four percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The four industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of December are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; and Information. The eight industries that reported a decrease in imports -- listed in order -- are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Mining; Other Services; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; and Wholesale Trade. Six industries reported no change in imports in December as compared to November.



     Imports  
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower    
     Index



     Dec 2019         11        74          15        48.0



     Nov 2019          3        84          13        45.0



     Oct 2019          5        87           8        48.5



     Sep 2019          9        80          11        49.0

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM(®) Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in December registered 60 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the 58.5 percent reading in November. This indicates that respondents believe their inventories are still too high.

The 11 industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in December -- listed in order -- are: Information; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Construction; and Public Administration. The three industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in December are: Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Finance & Insurance.


      
           Inventory 
     %Too  
          %About   
     %Too   
     Index
        Sentiment                 Right
                        
     High                  
     Low



         Dec 2019           25              70        5        60.0



         Nov 2019           23              71        6        58.5



         Oct 2019           20              74        6        57.0



         Sep 2019           20              76        4        58.0

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of December 2019.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM(®) makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Non-Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). According the BEA estimates for 2017 GDP (released November 1, 2018), the six largest non-manufacturing, non-government sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; and Information.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The NMI(®) (Non-Manufacturing Index) is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

An NMI(® )above 48.6 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.6 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.6 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Non-Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®) survey is sent out to Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM(®) receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM(®) then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Non-Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®) monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management(®
)
Institute for Supply Management(®) (ISM(®)) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business(®), its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Mastery Model(®). This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

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     Contact: 
     
     Kristina Cahill


              
     
     
                  Report On Business
                  (R) Analyst


              
     
     ISM(R), ROB/Research Manager


              
     
     Tempe, Arizona


              
     
     +1 480.455.5910


              
     
     Email: 
                
                  kcahill@instituteforsupplymanagement.org

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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management