Jun 27, 2019   SOURCE: BusinessWire

OPEC Decision Hinges on Osaka G20 Meetings

RS Energy Group (RSEG) expects OPEC+ will extend its 1.2 MM bbl/d cut deal through the second half of 2019. However, the Osaka G20 meetings on June 28-29 are the main risk to a straightforward rollover of the cuts. A bearish outcome in Japan could force a late change to the OPEC calculus, which is one reason key OPEC members sought to reschedule the producer meetings.

Bill Farren-Price, director, Derek Brower, PhD, director, and Judith Dwarkin, PhD, chief economist, reviewed possible outcomes from the July 1-2 OPEC Vienna meetings and determined the main challenge to the cut agreement would be a negative market reaction to trade negotiations between Presidents Xi and Trump at the Osaka G20 meeting. In this scenario, RSEG’s analysts expect some producers to float the idea of deeper cuts, which would be complex to arrange at this stage.

“Market sentiment will be a key driver here. While it will couch the strategy in terms of seeking supply-demand balance, Saudi Arabia’s approach to the market will continue to be dictated by price,” says Bill Farren-Price.

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RS Energy Group (RSEG) empowers operators, investors and service companies to rapidly evaluate the oil and gas market with access to advanced analytics and decisions with innovative technology backed by over 20 years of industry experience delivering advanced analytics and forensic research. Since 1998, RSEG’s dedicated team of engineers, economists, geologists, developers, CFA charterholders, data scientists and mathematicians has provided integrated, thorough and objective analysis to institutional investors, private equity firms and corporate clients. Headquartered in Calgary, RSEG is a privately-held company with additional offices in Houston, Philadelphia, New York City and Winchester, UK.

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