DRG Forecasts PCs and Tablets Shipments Will Continue to Decrease
BELMONT, Mass., Sept. 24, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Daniel Research Group, a market research firm specializing in forecasting technology markets announces the availability of its updated U.S. Personal Devices 2019-2023 Forecast Report. The report is available on DRG's website, www.DanielResearchGroup.com.
Market Overview
Notwithstanding the growth in Unit Shipments this year, driven by Windows 7 to Windows 10 migration, Unit Shipments of Desktop PCs, Mobile PCs, and Tablets will continue to decline slowly over the next five years as both Households and Business consolidate computing devices.
United States Total Personal Device Unit Shipments (M)
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2018 2019 AGR 2023 CAGR '18-'23
Desktop PCs
Desktop PCs 16.8 17.4 3.2% 17.0 0.2%
Mobile PCs
Traditional 41.1 41.5 0.9% 42.0 0.4%
Convertible 6.5 6.6 1.8% 14.3 17.2%
Total Mobile PCs 47.6 48.1 1.1% 56.3 3.4%
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Total PCs 64.4 65.5 1.6% 73.2 2.6%
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Tablets
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Detachable 7.2 7.9 9.8% 8.4 3.2%
Slate 33.0 34.9 5.8% 17.7 -11.7%
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Total Tablets 40.2 42.8 6.6% 26.2 -8.2%
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Total PCs and Tablets 104.6 108.3 3.5% 99.4 -1.0%
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Mobile Phones
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Standard Phones 7.2 6.6 -7.7% 0.8 -34.8%
Smartphones 163.3 161.3 -1.3% 178.4 1.8%
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Total Mobile Phones 170.5 167.9 -1.5% 179.2 1.0%
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Total
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Total Personal Devices 275.2 276.2 0.4% 278.6 0.2%
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infinityINTDelta Daniel Research Group (C) (2019)
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The US Economy
Most economists are forecasting a continuation of our current slow growth in GDP and employment as the most likely scenario over the next five years. Stable growth periods increase demand for Consumer and Enterprise PCs, Tablets, and Mobile Phones. However, structural changes in the economic demographics will influence how demand will be distributed. DRG develops and continually updates its own US Business Economic Demographic Database (BEDD) to forecast the Total Available Market in the Enterprise Sector.
While the number of employees will grow over the next five years, the number of businesses will slightly decrease. In the Consumer sector, while the number of households will increase, the resident size of the households will slightly decrease
Replacement Rates
Replacement rates increase in economic growth periods and decease in down turns. With the current outlook uncertain, and no compelling new product or technology anticipated other than 5G, we have chosen to take a conservative approach. DRG is forecasting a slight increase in the rate that users replace their personal computing devices in 2019 to 2021, primarily driven by normal failure rates and emerging new use-case, with replacement rates slowing again starting in 2022.
Mobile Computing Trends
The balance between fix computing devices (Desktop PCs) and mobile computing devices (Mobile PCs and Tablets) has been stable for some time and will continue as the core base of users and use-cases that require the power of an on-premise Desktop PCs in reached. However, Mobile PCs will increase its share of Total Mobile Devices at the expense of Tablets. Hybrid PCs will increase their share of Mobile Devices and Convertible Mobile PCs will increase their share of Hybrids.
While the preference for mobile vs. fixed computing devices will continue to increase in both segments, there are differences in form factor preference. Enterprises prefer Convertible Mobile PCs that are better suited for productivity increasing use-cases. Consumers prefer Detachable Tablets that are better suited to meet content delivery, social media, and life management use-cases.
About Daniel Research Group
DRG is a market research and consulting firm servicing technology clients. Its primary focus is developing custom market models and forecasts utilizing proprietary methodologies and algorithms developed over more than 30 years. The forecasts in this report were developed using DRG's EquilibriumSolver (EQS) methodology and application. To learn more about EQS, click on these links - Fact Sheet: White Paper:
Contact
Steve Daniel, President
Daniel Research Group
(617) 484 - 6225
223423@email4pr.com
www.DanielResearchGroup.com
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