AutoPacific Forecasts 16.9 Million U.S. Light Vehicle Sales In 2018 As Auto Sales Return To 'Normal'
TUSTIN, Calif., Feb. 22, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Automotive consulting firm AutoPacific today officially announced its forecast for 2018 U.S. light vehicle sales. Down approximately 300,000 units from 2017 sales, AutoPacific forecasts 2018 will see 16.9 million units sold. "As the market continues to return to 'normal' after years of pent-up demand and economic recovery, a steady decline in auto sales is expected," explains Ed Kim, AutoPacific Vice President of Industry Analysis.
AutoPacific's first quarter forecast for year-end sales has proven to be exceptionally accurate over the years. With forecast accuracy of 99.3% in 2017, AutoPacific achieves a 10-year average accuracy of 95%. Unique to AutoPacific's methodology is the ability to balance economic and industry factors with real-world insight gained from consumer data collected by AutoPacific's annual survey of new vehicle buyers, the New Vehicle Satisfaction Study.
Electrification
Despite declining overall light vehicle sales in the coming years, electrified vehicles are expected to see strong growth as other world markets rapidly adopt electrification. "The U.S. is no longer the biggest market in the world," says Kim, "so even though the current administration is likely to relax CAFE standards, automakers develop their business cases from a global perspective and other markets demand electrification." Additionally, continued growth of high volume/low cost 48V hybrids will contribute heavily to the growth of electrified powertrains. AutoPacific's New Vehicle Satisfaction Study reveals consumer demand for electric vehicles is still low (3% in 2017), but OEM push, influenced by other world markets, is expected to increase consumer pull in the coming years as more electrified vehicles make their way into the mainstream market. AutoPacific forecasts electrified powertrain share of sales to increase from 3% in 2017 to 12% in 2023.
Autonomy
By the end of the forecast period, AutoPacific expects growth in autonomous vehicle ride hailing services to contribute to the decline in light vehicle sales. "These services affect consumer need for vehicle ownership," explains Kim. "In dense urban centers, where ride hailing services aim to be cheaper and more convenient than auto ownership, we will see reduced demand for privately owned vehicles," says Kim. While privately owned new vehicles are not expected to go away anytime soon, AutoPacific's volume forecast is reflective of how the market will begin feeling the impact of autonomous ride hailing vehicles sooner than many might think.
About AutoPacific
AutoPacific is a future-oriented automotive marketing research and product-consulting firm. Every year AutoPacific publishes a wide variety of syndicated studies on the automotive industry. The firm, founded in 1986, also conducts extensive proprietary research and consulting for auto manufacturers, distributors, marketers and suppliers worldwide. Company headquarters and its state-of-the-art automotive research facility are in Tustin, California, with an affiliate office in the Detroit area. Additional information can be found on AutoPacific's websites: http://www.autopacific.com and http://vehiclevoice.com/
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SOURCE AutoPacific
