Global Pathway for Automotive Transmissions Issues and Opportunities to 2030: Trends Influencing the Design of Automotive Transmissions for Light Duty Vehicles
DUBLIN, Oct. 25, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- The "Pathway for Automotive Transmissions: Issues and Opportunities" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.
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This report explores possible answers to these and other key questions, and attempts to assign probabilities to the outcomes. The purpose of these probabilities is not to attempt to predict the future so much as imagine the possibilities available, and attempt to do so with as much insight as is possible today.
The focus of the report is understanding the trends behind current developments and extracting insights to help the reader plan and make sense of the rapidly changing environment for automotive transmission manufacturers and suppliers.
The simultaneous emergence of four megatrends - electrification, automated driving, connectivity, and shared mobility are making it more difficult for manufacturers to forecast trends to guide them in investment and development.
This report examines current trends influencing the design of automotive transmissions for light duty vehicles and offers educated predictions of how these might play out by 2030.
Over the next several years, if not decades, the industry will likely continue to develop a wide variety of transmissions to support both traditional and electric powertrain technologies.
So what transmission development trends should companies focus on to be sure they remain competitive in the rapidly shifting global markets?
Five key strategic questions on the future of automotive transmissions
1. What is the probability that the emissions and fuel economy regulations
projected for 2025 through 2030 will remain as currently envisioned? If
they change, in what direction?
2. Will the current trend of downspeeding to optimize the operating range of
the ICE continue?
3. How will electrification impact the development of the transmission?
4. Will electrified powertrains demand significantly different development
paths for hybrid and full EVs?
5. What is the likelihood that a significant technical disruptor will be
introduced in the next few years, significant enough and early enough to
change the outcome predicted by the consensus view by 2030, all other
factors remaining equal?
What the experts say:
Dr Joerg Gindele, Senior Director of Core Engineering, Magna Powertrain
Multispeed transmissions will still be required, even with the move towards electric vehicles. Non-hybrid combustion engines now have up to ten gears, and in mild and full hybrids it still makes sense to have seven speeds
Prof. Dr. Leopold Mikulic, Managing Director of Mikulic ConsultingBy 2030, it's likely that electrified CVTs and AMTs with integrated electric motors will gain market share in the more cost-sensitive volume segments
Larry Nitz, Executive Director of Global Propulsion Systems, General Motors
Combustion engines and multi-gear / CVT transmissions will retain significant market share, but by 2030 most will have significant connected and electrified content for regenerative braking, load shifting and EV driving
Professor Dr.-Ing. Stefan Pischinger President & CEO, FEV GroupICE-only drives will still require multispeed transmissions in 2030. Multispeed transmissions will also gain market share in BEVs seeking to improve efficiencies across the operating range
Carsten Weber, manager of Engine and Powertrain Systems, Ford
The role of transmissions will change. Instead of being the element that adjusts torque and speed between engine and wheel, they will become intelligent performance distributors that manage energy consumption, emissions and driving behavior
Oscar Sarmiento, Head of Engineering, Japan, ContinentalElectrification will further push CVT applications in vehicles with large comfort demands for megacities
Key Topics Covered:
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 The automotive industry's assessment: Is there consensus on the future of the transmission?
1.2 Key questions uncertainties and trends
1.3 What do the opinion leaders have to say?
1.3.1 Magna's Dr Joerg Gindele on opportunities for multi-speed transmissions
1.3.2 GWM's Gerhard Henning and application-specific growth
1.3.3 Prof. Dr. Leopold Mikulic sees growth in CVTs and AMTs
1.3.4 GM's Larry Nitz and connected transmissions
1.3.5 FEV's Professor Dr.-Ing. Stefan Pischinger on multi-speed transmissions and CVTs
1.3.6 Ford's Carsten Weber on intelligent performance and transmissions
1.3.7 BMW's Peter Quintus on MT and M applications
1.3.8 Porsches Gerd Bofinger and a transmissions portfolio
1.3.9 Nissan's Toshihiro Hirai hybrid vision
1.3.10 Will any current transmissions disappear by 2030?
1.4 The industry's best-fit consensus view
Chapter 2: Developing transmissions that cut emissions
2.1 What will global emissions regulations look like in 2030?
2.2 Global warming demands action: the cost of cleaner technologies
2.3 A US case study on the cost vs benefit of green technologies
2.4 Making every Joule count: optimising the ICE energy balance
2.5 Chapter 2 summary - forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 3: Arguing the technology: From MTs to transmissions for automated and connected cars
3.1 Unlocking the potential of downspeeding with more ratios
3.2 When is enough too much: what is the optimum number of gears?
3.3 Is there life left in the manual transmission?
3.3.1 How a family of transmissions cuts costs
3.4 Automating the manual transmission
3.5 Applying novel e-clutch solutions to automate the MT
3.6 Can the AT beat the MT at the efficiency game?
3.7 Possibility of DCTs challenging the AT market in America?
3.8 CVTs can still improve ICEs' efficiency
3.8.1 The technologies driving modern CVTs
3.9 Designing transmissions for connected and autonomous vehicles
3.9.1 Connectivity and smart shifting
3.10 Chapter 3 summary - forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 4: Re-defining the transmission's role in an electrified future
4.1 Full electric vehicle transmissions and efficiency
4.2 Is there a case to be made for unique micro and mild hybrid transmissions?
4.3 Who is doing what? Solutions for full hybrid EV transmissions
4.4 Chapter 4 - forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 5: OEMs place their bets on future trends
5.1 Collaboration gives two US companies the best of both worlds heading to 2030
5.1.1 GM's transmission plans
5.1.2 Ford's transmission strategy
5.2 BMW adopts different approaches to efficiency and driver experience
5.2.1 Fine-tuning the DCT
5.2.2 BMW's high performance 8G45 AT
5.3 Toyota's TNGA platform and the future of the company's transmissions
5.4 Honda's compact, high performing 10 speed transverse AT
5.5 Hyundai's Smartstream 8AT focuses on efficiency and fuel economy
5.6 New technologies demand unique solutions: Nissan's variable compression engine and Jatco's CVT8
5.7 What does Chrysler's first DHT reveal about the company's plans for transmissions in an electrified future?
5.7.1 An ICE, two motors and four driving operations define the eFlite DHT
5.8 Chapter 5 summary - forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 6: Transmissions for the Chinese market: A perspective on the challenges
6.1 Chinese drivers demand unique solutions
6.2 How will China's NEV program impact transmission development?
6.3 Chapter 6 summary - forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 7: What will the transmission market look like in 2030?
7.1 What impact will electrification have on the transmission market in 2030?
7.2 Global transmission sales by the numbers
7.3 Chapter 7 summary - forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 8: New transmission technologies
8.1 Ricardo's novel approach to replacing the MT
8.2 ZF's AWD electrified drivetrain refines AMT gearshifts
8.3 Revolutionary CVTs set to make their mark by 2030
8.3.1 Beltless CVT cuts efficiency losses
8.3.2 An efficient CVT for EVs?
8.4 A modular hybrid transmission concept for AT, 48V, HEV and PHEV
8.4.1 Compact longitudinal hybrid concept
8.5 The key to 48-volt full-time EV lies with the transmission
8.6 Chapter 8 summary - forecasts and uncertainties
Chapter 9: Looking past 2030: The next 20 years of the transmission
9.1 The impact of electrification and the high road scenario on transmission development
9.2 Low road scenario - technology and electrification take a breather
9.3 Chapter 9 summary - forecasts and uncertainties
Addendum A: Low viscosity universal fluids as a solution for e-mobility applications
Transmission fluids already follow the path of least resistance to lower viscosities
Can a low viscosity universal transmission fluid dominate the market?
Addendum B: Handy facts about key transmission suppliers
Companies Mentioned
-- BMW
-- Chrysler
-- FEV
-- Ford
-- GM
-- GWM
-- Honda
-- Hyundai
-- Jatco
-- Magna
-- Nissan
-- Porsche
-- Toyota
For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/s7nzj2/global_pathway?w=5
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