NMI® at 55.5%; April Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 59.5%; New Orders Index at 58.1%; Employment Index at 53.7%

TEMPE, Ariz., May 3, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in April for the 111th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®).

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management(® )(ISM(®)) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The NMI(®) registered 55.5 percent, which is 0.6 percentage point lower than the March reading of 56.1 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the March reading of 57.4 percent, reflecting growth for the 117th consecutive month, at a faster rate in April. The New Orders Index registered 58.1 percent; 0.9 percentage point lower than the reading of 59 percent in March. The Employment Index decreased 2.2 percentage points in April to 53.7 percent from the March reading of 55.9 percent. The Prices Index decreased 3 percentage points from the March reading of 58.7 percent to 55.7 percent, indicating that prices increased in April for the 23rd consecutive month. According to the NMI(®), 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector has experienced an uptick in business activity, but in general, there has been a leveling off. Respondents are still mostly optimistic about overall business conditions, but concerns remain about employment resources."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 15 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in April -- listed in order -- are: Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; and Information.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

    --  "Several produce products -- particularly avocados and celery -- are
        experiencing supply issues that are affecting prices. Prices for these
        items have increased and will continue to remain high [in retail and
        wholesale markets] for the foreseeable future." (Accommodation & Food
        Services)
    --  "We have increased wages to comply with increases in government-mandated
        minimum-wage levels. In order to retain production employees, we are
        going to a weekly payroll system." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing &
        Hunting)
    --  "Extremely difficult to fill direct care personnel positions." (Health
        Care & Social Assistance)
    --  "Spring selling season is here for residential construction. Sales are
        coming, but negotiations are now the norm. Traffic is higher than the
        last three months, mostly due to lower mortgage rates." (Construction)
    --  "April business has slowed a bit over March, which is typical. However,
        while January and February were slightly under last year's numbers for
        the same months, March [brought] a resurgence in orders that continued
        into April. So, the March and April order levels are significantly
        higher than last year's. The volume is helping with negotiation for
        lower prices, while causing backlogs in the supply chain." (Management
        of Companies & Support Services)
    --  "We had a general slowing of business activity beginning in February. We
        initially believed that February's slowness was primarily weather
        related, but the slowness continued into March and now April."
        (Wholesale Trade)
    --  "The outlook for mining capital expenditures looks like it will not
        change for a while. [We don't] expect much growth, so we keep working
        with same team and shrinking capex investments." (Mining)
    --  "We have experienced several cancellations that have significantly
        impacted the month's revenue. [The cancellations] appear to be
        attributed to an international business situation -- which was the
        source for the potential revenue." (Professional, Scientific & Technical
        Services)
    --  "Business is steady. Recruiting qualified employees has been difficult."
        (Public Administration)
    --  "Continuing momentum in most areas. We continue to have pressure finding
        talent to support open positions. Starting to see increases in building
        costs due to increases in labor [costs]. Inventory moving well, with
        deliveries on time." (Retail Trade)


                                                
           
              ISM(R) NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE

                                       
          
             COMPARISON OF ISM(R) NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM(R) MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*

                                                                   
            
              APRIL 2019



     Index                                             
            
              Non-Manufacturing                                           Manufacturing


                   
            Series   
          Series    
           Percent   
            Direction         
            Rate of                 
           Trend**           
           Series   
           Series   
        Percent
                        Index            Index             Point                                        Change                                                    Index            Index          Point
                                                 Change                                                                          
           (Months)                                                           Change
                     
            Apr      
          Mar                                                                                                               
           Apr      
           Mar



     
         NMI(R)/PMI(R)                      55.5               56.1                  -0.6          
            Growing                
            Slower                       111              52.8            55.3      -2.5


            Business Activity/
             Production                        59.5               57.4                  +2.1          
            Growing                
            Faster                       117              52.3            55.8      -3.5



     
         New Orders                         58.1               59.0                  -0.9          
            Growing                
            Slower                       117              51.7            57.4      -5.7



     
         Employment                         53.7               55.9                  -2.2          
            Growing                
            Slower                        62              52.4            57.5      -5.1



     
         Supplier Deliveries                50.5               52.0                  -1.5          
            Slowing                
            Slower                        40              54.6            54.2      +0.4



     
         Inventories                        51.5               50.0                  +1.5          
            Growing             
           From Unchanged                     1              52.9            51.8      +1.1



     
         Prices                             55.7               58.7                  -3.0        
            Increasing               
            Slower                        23              50.0            54.3      -4.3



     
         Backlog of Orders                  55.0               56.5                  -1.5          
            Growing                
            Slower                        16              53.9            50.4      +3.5



     
         New Export Orders                  57.0               52.5                  +4.5          
            Growing                
            Faster                        27              49.5            51.7      -2.2



     
         Imports                            55.0               51.5                  +3.5          
            Growing                
            Faster                         2              49.8            51.1      -1.3



     
         Inventory Sentiment                60.0               62.5                  -2.5         
            Too High                
            Slower                       262               N/A            N/A      N/A



     
         Customers' Inventories              N/A               N/A                  N/A                           N/A                                  N/A            N/A             42.6            42.7      -0.1



     
         Overall Economy          
          Growing   
           Slower                   117



     
         Non-Manufacturing Sector 
          Growing   
           Slower                   111

*Non-Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(® )data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(® )data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
**Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aircraft Parts; Bacon; Beef; Construction Subcontractors (2); Diesel Fuel (2); Fuel; Gasoline (2); Labor (7); Labor -- Construction (2); Labor -- Temporary (2); and Pharmaceuticals (2).

Commodities Down in Price
Steel Products.

Commodities in Short Supply
Catheters; Construction Subcontractors (16); Labor (7); Labor -- Construction (37); Labor -- Temporary (8); Needles & Syringes (2); and Tubing.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

APRIL 2019 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI
)In April, the NMI(®) registered 55.5 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 56.1 percent in March and the lowest reading since August 2017 (55.5 percent). The non-manufacturing sector grew for the 111th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

An NMI(® )above 48.6 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the April NMI(®) indicates growth for the 117th consecutive month in the overall economy and expansion in the non-manufacturing sector for the 111th consecutive month. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the NMI(®) and the overall economy indicates that the NMI(®) for April (55.5 percent) corresponds to a 2.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

NMI(®) HISTORY


                     Month   NMI                                         Month NMI

                                          (R)                                      (R)

                 ---                                                               ---

        Apr 2019                         55.5                 
     Oct 2018           60.0

    ---

        Mar 2019                         56.1                 
     Sep 2018           60.8

    ---

        Feb 2019                         59.7                 
     Aug 2018           58.8

    ---

        Jan 2019                         56.7                 
     Jul 2018           56.7

    ---

        Dec 2018                         58.0                 
     Jun 2018           58.7

    ---

        Nov 2018                         60.4                 
     May 2018           58.9

    ---

                           
          Average for 12 months - 58.4

                                
              High - 60.8

                                
              Low - 55.5

                                         ---

Business Activity
ISM(®)'s Business Activity Index registered 59.5 percent in April, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the March reading of 57.4 percent. This represents growth in business activity for the 117th consecutive month. Sixteen industries reported increased business activity. Comments from respondents include: "Strong consumer demand" and "Our business activity continues to grow with current customers."

The 16 industries reporting growth of business activity in April -- listed in order -- are: Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Construction; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Information. The only industry reporting a decrease in April is Retail Trade.



     Business Activity 
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower    
     Index



     Apr 2019                  36        56           8        59.5



     Mar 2019                  33        52          15        57.4



     Feb 2019                  39        51          10        64.7



     Jan 2019                  33        43          24        59.7

New Orders
ISM(®)'s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index registered 58.1 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage point from the March reading of 59 percent. New orders grew in April for the 117th consecutive month, at a slower rate compared with March. Comments from respondents include: "Driven by new customers" and "Major orders received and booked; quoted last year."

The 15 industries reporting growth of new orders in April -- listed in order -- are: Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Mining; Information; and Transportation & Warehousing. The two industries reporting contraction in April are: Retail Trade; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing.



     New Orders 
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower    
     Index



     Apr 2019           36        54          10        58.1



     Mar 2019           33        53          14        59.0



     Feb 2019           38        52          10        65.2



     Jan 2019           28        51          21        57.7

Employment
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in April for the 62nd consecutive month. ISM(®)'s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 53.7 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the March reading of 55.9 percent. Ten industries reported increased employment, and six industries reported decreased employment. Comments from respondents include: "Difficult to fill open positions and retain entry-level personnel" and "Recent vacancies have been difficult to fill. Tight labor market."

The 10 industries reporting an increase in employment in April -- listed in order -- are: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Public Administration. The six industries reporting a reduction in employment in April -- listed in order -- are: Utilities; Retail Trade; Information; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; and Finance & Insurance.



     Employment 
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower    
     Index



     Apr 2019           23        62          15        53.7



     Mar 2019           25        62          13        55.9



     Feb 2019           21        66          13        55.2



     Jan 2019           22        65          13        57.8

Supplier Deliveries
Supplier deliveries were slower in April for the 40th consecutive month. The index registered 50.5 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 52 percent registered in March. This indicates that deliveries are slowing at slower rate in April as compared with March. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "We have worked with vendors to streamline processes and have added vendors to spread out our volume; this has helped to improve delivery time a little" and "After a bout of inclement weather, supplier delivery performance has returned to normal."

The six industries reporting slower deliveries in April -- listed in order -- are: Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Construction; and Information. The five industries reporting faster deliveries in April are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade. Seven industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in April as compared to March.



     Supplier Deliveries 
     %Slower  
     %Same   
     %Faster   
     Index



     Apr 2019                     7        87           6        50.5



     Mar 2019                     9        86           5        52.0



     Feb 2019                    11        85           4        53.5



     Jan 2019                    10        83           7        51.5

Inventories
ISM(®)'s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index grew in April after a month of being unchanged, registering 51.5 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the 50 percent that was reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 33 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "[Supporting] the business level" and "Working through our excess inventory slowly."

The eight industries reporting an increase in inventories in April -- listed in order -- are: Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Public Administration. The five industries reporting a decrease in inventories are: Retail Trade; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing.



     Inventories 
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower    
     Index



     Apr 2019            21        61          18        51.5



     Mar 2019            19        62          19        50.0



     Feb 2019            20        62          18        51.0



     Jan 2019            22        54          24        49.0

Prices
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for materials and services increased in April for the 23rd consecutive month. ISM(®)'s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index registered 55.7 percent; 3 percentage points lower than the 58.7 percent reported in March. Twenty percent of respondents reported higher prices, 76 percent indicated no change in prices paid, and 4 percent of respondents reported lower prices.

Eleven non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of April, listed in the following order: Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Information. The only non-manufacturing industry reporting a decrease in prices paid during the month of April is Mining. Six industries reported no change in prices in April compared to March.



     Prices   
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower   
     Index



     Apr 2019         20        76          4        55.7



     Mar 2019         21        77          2        58.7



     Feb 2019         18        74          8        54.4



     Jan 2019         25        67          8        59.4

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
ISM(®)'s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index grew in April. The index registered 55 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 56.5 percent reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 37 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The 10 industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in April -- listed in order -- are: Educational Services; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; and Mining. The four industries that reported a decrease in backlogs in April are: Retail Trade; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade.



     Backlog of Orders 
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower    
     Index



     Apr 2019                  20        70          10        55.0



     Mar 2019                  22        69           9        56.5



     Feb 2019                  24        63          13        55.5



     Jan 2019                  20        65          15        52.5

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based personnel grew for the 27th consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 57 percent in April, which is 4.5 percentage points higher than the 52.5 percent that was reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 63 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The eight industries reporting an increase in new export orders in April -- listed in order -- are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; and Information. No industry reported a decrease in exports for the month of April. Eight industries reported no change in April compared to March.



     New Export Orders 
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower    
     Index



     Apr 2019                  20        74           6        57.0



     Mar 2019                  18        69          13        52.5



     Feb 2019                  17        76           7        55.0



     Jan 2019                  15        71          14        50.5

Imports
The Imports Index grew in April for the second consecutive month. The reading of 55 percent is 3.5 percentage points higher than the 51.5 percent reported in March. Fifty-four percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The seven industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of April are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. The two industries reporting a decrease in imports in the month of April are: Information; and Retail Trade. Nine industries reported no change in imports in April as compared to March.



     Imports  
     %Higher  
     %Same   
     %Lower    
     Index



     Apr 2019         16        78           6        55.0



     Mar 2019         13        77          10        51.5



     Feb 2019          8        81          11        48.5



     Jan 2019         12        80           8        52.0

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM(®) Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in April registered 60 percent, which is 2.5 percentage points lower than the 62.5 percent that was reported in March. This indicates that respondents believe their inventories are still too high. In April, 24 percent of respondents said their inventories were too high, 4 percent of the respondents said their inventories were too low, and 72 percent said their inventories were about right.

The eight industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in April -- listed in order -- are: Wholesale Trade; Information; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The two industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in April are: Transportation & Warehousing; and Other Services.



     Inventory Sentiment 
     %Too  
          %About    
     %Too   
     Index
                                    Right
                          
     High                   
     Low



     Apr 2019                 24               72        4        60.0



     Mar 2019                 27               71        2        62.5



     Feb 2019                 24               70        6        59.0



     Jan 2019                 26               69        5        60.5

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of April 2019.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM(®) makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Non-Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The NMI(®) (Non-Manufacturing Index) is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

An NMI(® )above 48.6 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.6 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.6 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Non-Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®) survey is sent out to Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM(®) receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM(®) then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Non-Manufacturing ISM(®) Report On Business(®) monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management(®
)
Institute for Supply Management(®) (ISM(®)) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business(®), its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Mastery Model(®). This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

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     Contact: 
     
     Kristina Cahill


              
     
     
                  Report On Business
                  
                    (R) Analyst


              
     
     ISM(R), ROB/Research Manager


              
     
     Tempe, Arizona


              
     
     +1 480.455.5910


              
     
     Email: 
                
                  kcahill@instituteforsupplymanagement.org

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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management