IEEE Computer Society Grades 2019 Technology Predictions: Scores a B
LOS ALAMITOS, Calif., Nov. 26, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, the IEEE Computer Society (IEEE CS) reveals the end-of-the-year scorecard for its 2019 technology predictions which forecasted deep learning accelerators, assisted transportation, and the Internet of Bodies (IoB), to lead the 2019 technology outlook. Looking back on its 2019 predictions, the scorecard grades the IEEE CS's successes and shortcomings on its future view, along with analysis of the progress and potential of each predicted technology. The overall score for the 2019 technology predictions is a solid B.
"The past year has seen tremendous growth in deep learning accelerators and continued increase in the adoption of assisted transportation and augmented/virtual reality," said Dejan Milojicic, IEEE CS past president (2014). "We have seen a substantial jump in technology innovation this year, leading to our promising technology predictions for 2020, so stay tuned for more from the IEEE Computer Society."
Following are the IEEE Computer Society predictions, grades, and analysis:
Technology
Comparison
---
How Well We
Explanation
Predicted
---
Deep learning accelerators Deep learning (DL) accelerators have made
a substantial advance through many
startups and products already on the
market. This is very consistent with DL
advances from previous years as well as
our prediction. It was the only single
prediction that received straight A's,
including three A+'s, resulting in an
A average A overall.
---
Assisted transportation This is the second top ranked prediction,
with all A and B evaluations. In many
ways this prediction is supported by the
previous technology on accelerators for
DL. Many vehicles depend on video and
image recognition which are enabled by
accelerators. While the full autonomous
vehicle vision is still in the works,
many features are being deployed as
assisted functionality. Substantial
assistance is being directly deployed,
such as alerts for proximity to other
vehicles, obstacles, the edge of roads,
A/B parking, and objects around car.
---
The Internet of Bodies (IoB) The movement of the Internet of Things
into the IoB continues to progress below
the radar of most people. This year, the
FDA issued security advisories for
internet-connected medical devices with
security issues, and some companies
announced their intention to conduct
human trials for brain implants with
read/write capability connected to the
cloud in 2020. Employers and schools
expanded their use of technologies such
as brain-sensing headbands to
(allegedly) track attention and other
wearable devices. AR and VR headsets
gained in popularity and applications
expanded. As human bodies become more
reliant on the internet for their
functionality and safety, these attached
or implanted devices used for medical
purposes, employment monitoring, and
recreation, will continue to gain
prominence. They will also raise complex
B/C ethical and legal questions.
---
Social credit algorithms Social credit algorithms are largely
developed away from the public's
attention because of the potential
privacy and freedom breaches they
represent, but detailed data is required
on entire populations to be effective
and we are witnessing the increased
collection of identifying and behavioral
data at country scales. (In recent years
many governments, including some
democracies, have increased regulations
that are designed to more clearly
disambiguate the identities of people,
such as the full-face mask ban in Hong
Kong and the Real ID requirements in the
US.) By associating massive behavioral
data with uniquely identifiable persons,
large companies and governments can
build detailed "social credit" and
similar measures of virtually every
B- person in their charge.
---
Advanced (smart) materials Many of these technologies appear in
and devices small, local experimental settings, but
have not received wide distribution. For
example, smart road materials that
change properties based on light and
temperature have already been
demonstrated in several countries. Smart
pills that allow for the tracking of
medications as they travel through the
body have been reported in small scale
studies, but are not yet available to
the public. A wide range of interactive
media, such as paper and glass, are
available for experimentation and in
novelty items, but not in widespread
B/C industrial grade or consumer uses.
---
Active security protection While active security protection still
seems like a good idea, it appears that
most of the security mechanisms are
still reactive. As viruses become more
sophisticated, antivirus companies
suggest enhancing the protection
mechanisms and making them active. The
notion of NGAV (Next Generation of
Antiviruses) was generated to indicate a
more dynamic approach; e.g., NGAV should
be able to "strike-back" or even
"strike-first" in the case of attack.
This year, different companies have
announced new products that can be
considered NGAV. We believe that this
trend will continue and will become even
B- more significant in the future.
---
Augmented reality (AR) and Market adoption of VR hardware and
virtual reality (VR) content continues to grow steadily,
while new headsets are developed with
incremental improvements. Behind the
scenes, these improvements hint at a
potential quantum leap in VR: fully
immersive, untethered experience. (For
example, inside-out cameras eliminate
the need for a fixed-space
configuration-opening the door to AR/
VR integration, and the upcoming
tethering of the Quest headset allows
for richer VR experiences to be played
on the relatively weak mobile headset.)
If such tethering is later replaced by a
wireless interface, it would completely
bridge the gap between the high-quality
PC-based VR experience, and the
mobility and freedom of the portable AR/
B+ VR experience.
---
Chatbots Chatbots are a reality today, with a
market value exceeding $1.5B in 2019 and
expected growth to over $7.5B by 2024
with a CAGR of 34% (according to Mordor
Intelligence.) The quick uptake is
fueled by growing data availability that
in turn fuels Artificial Intelligence-
based services. The recent progress in
Natural Language Recognition and the
quality in Speech Syntheses are making
chatbot interaction seamless. In the
next decade, we can expect an extension
of chatbot interaction capabilities to
include follow up with clients using
different channels. They will also
transform from being a grown-up
Interactive Voice Response (IVR) to more
of an avatar of a service/company
interacting and "doing business" with
B clients.
---
Automated voice spam Our prediction about dramatically
(robocall) prevention improved robocall prevention was based
on increasing deployment of features
such as call screening, available on
recent Google Pixel platforms, in which
users can intercept an incoming call
with a voice prompt that requires the
caller to explain who they are. Indeed,
this can be useful (and anecdotally, one
user finds that about 90% of calls from
unknown callers terminate as soon as the
challenge is issued, while legitimate
calls can be completed.) However, we
expected more-not only additional
platforms but better automation. In the
future, we may see the ability to
automatically challenge unknown callers;
by the time the call is put through to
the owner of the phone, it is annotated
C with improved information.
---
Technology for humanity This looked like an obvious idea a year
(specifically machine ago, and it's possible that a few
learning) companies, universities, or governments
have applied machine learning "under the
hood" to a humanitarian pursuit, such as
identifying a disease or reducing
B/C pollution.
Last year, we saw examples such as (1)
companies that build "electronic sticks
for blind people" aiming at "replacing"
the use of guide dogs to allow people to
be more flexible; (2) in Japan, robots
are helping elderly people be more
independent; and (3) quite a few
advanced, dedicated medical tools that
aim to help ill and elderly people to
identify when they get lost, and
identify and report when they fall. We
believe that the grade is relatively low
since we are just at the beginning of
the revolution-but the revolution has
already started and it will improve the
quality of life for many people in the
near future.
---
Overall Score
B We seem to have succeeded in most of our
predictions, although we missed some.
Overall, it's not a bad score.
---
The process followed for ranking the predictions was simple and straightforward, and the authors who originally made the predictions evaluated their predictions individually. Averages and standard deviations were used as a basis for the discussion, which eventually resulted in the final rating.
The authors' overall rating for all 2019 predictions resulted in a score of B which was the same as 2018 and a close runner-up to the 2017 technology predictions score of A-.
Predictions and the scorecard were delivered by Erik DeBenedictis, Stealth Startup; Zoran Dimitrijevic, AirBnB Labs; Fred Douglis, Perspecta Labs; Paolo Faraboschi, Hewlett Packard Labs; Eitan Frachtenberg, data scientist; Phil Laplante, Penn State; Andrea Matwyshyn, Penn State Law - University Park; Avi Mendelson, Technion Israel and NTU Singapore; Dejan Milojicic, Hewlett Packard Labs; and Robert Saracco, IEEE Future Directions Committee. The technical contributors for this document are available for interviews.
Watch for IEEE Computer Society's 2020 technology predictions to be published in Computer magazine's December issue. Sign up here for exclusive access.
For past predictions and scorecards, visit the Press Room for the history of our annual Technology Predictions and Grades.
About the IEEE Computer Society
The IEEE Computer Society, a not-for-profit organization, is the world's home for computer science, engineering, and technology. A global leader in providing access to computer science research, analysis, and information, the IEEE Computer Society offers a comprehensive array of unmatched products, services, and opportunities for individuals at all stages of their professional career. Known as the premier organization that empowers the people who drive technology, its unparalleled resources include, international conferences, peer-reviewed publications, a unique digital library, standards, and training programs. Visit www.computer.org for more information.
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