Cox Automotive Forecast: September New-Vehicle Sales Up 6% Year Over Year; Record Electric Vehicle Sales Help Charge Strong Third Quarter
-- September's new-vehicle sale pace is expected to finish near 16.2 million, up from last year's 15.8 million level and higher than August's 16.1 million. -- Q3 sales volume is expected to reach 4.14 million, down from Q2 but higher by 6.2% year over year. Cox Automotive is adjusting its full-year forecast higher, as sales momentum continues. -- Electric vehicle (EV) sales in Q3 are expected to hit a record of 409,000 as buyers rush to close deals before government-backed incentives end. The prior record was Q4 2024, with 365,824 units sold.
ATLANTA, Sept. 25, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- September new-vehicle sales are expected to show a resilient market that continues to shake off significant policy changes and economic uncertainty. The September new-vehicle SAAR, or seasonally adjusted selling rate, is expected to finish near 16.2 million, an increase from last year's 15.8 level and a slight uptick from last month's 16.1 million pace. Sales volume is expected to rise 6% from last year but decline 14.9% from the previous month due to three fewer selling days.
"The new-vehicle sales pace has been surprisingly strong this summer and through the third quarter as uncertainty around tariff policy has decreased," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. "Continued low inflation and unemployment rates, coupled with a strong stock market, have kept consumers in a buying mood. A key contributor to sales in recent months has been an increase in EV sales, as buyers rush to market before the $7,500 tax credits expire at the end of September."
September 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Sales Forecast(1) Market Share
Segment Sep-25 Aug-25 Sep-24 YOY% MOM% Sep-25 Aug-25 MOM
Mid-Size Car 55,000 66,268 72,073 -23.7 % -17.0 % 4.4 % 4.5 % -0.1 %
Compact Car 85,000 105,710 83,275 2.1 % -19.6 % 6.7 % 7.1 % -0.4 %
Compact SUV/Crossover 225,000 261,810 199,388 12.8 % -14.1 % 17.9 % 17.7 % 0.2 %
Full-Size Pickup Truck 170,000 190,441 167,457 1.5 % -10.7 % 13.5 % 12.9 % 0.6 %
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover 220,000 261,459 175,694 25.2 % -15.9 % 17.5 % 17.7 % -0.2 %
Other Segments 505,000 594,482 490,536 2.9 % -15.1 % 40.1 % 40.2 % -0.1 %
Grand Total 1,260,000 1,480,170 1,188,423 6.0 % -14.9 %
(1)Cox Automotive Industry Insights data
Q3 Electric Vehicle Sales Poised to Set Record
With a surge of EV buyers in market before the end of government-supported tax incentives, Cox Automotive is forecasting that a record 410,000 EVs will be sold in the third quarter, a significant increase (21.4%) year over year and a jump of more than 30% compared to Q2. The share of EV sales in the third quarter will likely be close to 10% of total sales, a record. The previous EV sales peak in the U.S. was Q4 2024, when 365,824 EVs were sold, accounting for 8.7% of total new-vehicle sales.
"The federal tax credit was a key catalyst for EV adoption, and its expiration marks a pivotal moment," said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. "This shift will test whether the electric vehicle market is mature enough to thrive on its own fundamentals or still needs support to expand further." Cox Automotive expects EV sales to slow notably in Q4, but long-term sales growth will continue. For more on what's next, read Valdez Streaty's latest post: After the Credits: How EV Adoption Advances When Incentives Fade.
Q3 and Year-to-Date 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Cox Automotive is forecasting Q3 2025 new-vehicle sales to climb year over year by 6.2%, although they are projected to finish lower compared to Q2 by 1.6%. The year-over-year volume gains in the market are expected to be driven almost entirely by the four biggest automakers - General Motors, Toyota Motor Corporation, Ford Motor Company, and Hyundai Motor Company. Cox Automotive forecasts the "Big Four" in Q3 to post combined sales gains of 11.2% year over year. The rest of the industry is expected to be higher by 0.1%. Year to date, the story remains the same, with the Big Four forecasted to gain 9.1 % while the other automakers decline by 2%.
Q3 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Q3 Sales Forecast(1) YTD Sales Forecast Market Share
OEM Q3 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2024 QOQ% YOY% YTD 2025 YTD 2024 % Change YTD 2025 YTD 2024
GM 703,323 742,177 656,531 -5.2 % 7.1 % 2,135,839 1,938,265 10.2 % 17.4 % 16.4 %
Toyota 637,030 666,468 542,882 -4.4 % 17.3 % 1,873,767 1,726,016 8.6 % 15.3 % 14.6 %
Ford 542,636 609,160 500,495 -10.9 % 8.4 % 1,650,276 1,537,776 7.3 % 13.4 % 13.0 %
Hyundai 483,903 473,238 428,798 2.3 % 12.9 % 1,377,053 1,246,603 10.5 % 11.2 % 10.6 %
Honda 364,573 387,574 366,214 -5.9 % -0.4 % 1,103,724 1,056,495 4.5 % 9.0 % 9.0 %
Stellantis 303,506 305,669 305,293 -0.7 % -0.6 % 900,364 982,827 -8.4 % 7.3 % 8.3 %
Nissan-Mitsu 244,465 243,557 243,656 0.4 % 0.3 % 786,744 784,242 0.3 % 6.4 % 6.6 %
Subaru 165,591 154,818 171,169 7.0 % -3.3 % 487,366 493,612 -1.3 % 4.0 % 4.2 %
VW 160,338 132,838 163,029 20.7 % -1.7 % 445,575 482,612 -7.7 % 3.6 % 4.1 %
Tesla 157,058 143,535 166,923 9.4 % -5.9 % 428,693 471,374 -9.1 % 3.5 % 4.0 %
Mazda 119,532 99,982 110,966 19.6 % 7.7 % 329,830 313,452 5.2 % 2.7 % 2.7 %
BMW 102,028 98,500 83,412 3.6 % 22.3 % 295,119 271,391 8.7 % 2.4 % 2.3 %
Mercedes 93,445 82,700 97,806 13.0 % -4.5 % 251,245 276,024 -9.0 % 2.0 % 2.3 %
Other 67,627 72,217 67,705 -6.4 % -0.1 % 215,206 219,871 -2.1 % 1.8 % 1.9 %
NATION 4,145,054 4,212,433 3,904,879 -1.6 % 6.2 % 12,280,800 11,800,560 4.1 % 100.0 % 100.0 %
(1)Cox Automotive Industry Insights data
Chesbrough added, "The sales pace in the new-vehicle market is expected to wane in the coming months, as more headwinds gather. Sales of EVs are likely to decline significantly, and market conditions for other vehicles will become more challenging in the near future. More tariffed products are replacing existing inventory, and prices are expected to be pushed higher as automakers pass along higher import costs. Still, the market's strength in Q3 has improved our overall outlook."
Cox Automotive is raising its full-year forecast range to between 15.8 and 16.4 million, while increasing the baseline number to 16.1 million, the likely outcome for full-year sales. At the end of Q2, Cox Automotive had adjusted its baseline forecast to 15.7 million, but healthy sales and the large surge in EV volume during Q3 have led the Cox Automotive team to shift its outlook. Forecasts for both fleet sales and new retail sales have been adjusted higher. With an expected decline in EV leasing in Q4, the lease penetration forecast was moved lower, from 25% to 24% for the Q3 forecast. The forecast for used-retail sales and sales of CPO vehicles were adjusted higher.
"We are expecting a slowing in Q4," noted Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. "And that Q4 pace is likely to set the pace for 2026. The modest slowing is driven by supply shifts and constraints from the impact of tariffs and the expected decline in EVs sales. In Q4 and next year, there remains the chance of upside, but the upside comes with the risk of more price pressure in the form of higher incentives if automakers over produce rather than adjusting to what the market wants and can afford."
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of?first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers,?auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader(®),?Kelley Blue?Book(®), Manheim(®), vAuto(®),?Dealertrack(®),?NextGear Capital(TM), CentralDispatch(®) and FleetNet America(®). Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23?billion in annual revenue. Visit?coxautoinc.com?or connect via?@CoxAutomotive?on?X,?CoxAutoInc?on Facebook or?Cox-Automotive-Inc?on LinkedIn.
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SOURCE Cox Automotive
