Qatar

Economy

The prosperity of Qatar is mostly derived from the extraction and the export of petroleum and natural gas. The first production and export of petroleum started in 1949 and by 1970s Qataris enjoyed one of the highest per capita incomes in the world. The proved reserves of crude oil estimated at 25.2 billion barrels as of January 1, 2023, which means the production could continue for over 50 years at current levels.

Qatar held the 6^th largest oil reserves in the Middle East and the 14^th largest in the world. The company that operates all oil and gas activities in Qatar, including exploration, production, refining, transport, and storage is QatarEnergy (ex-Qatar Petroleum) established in 1974. In 2021, QatarEnergy was the fifth largest gas company in the world.

Qatar’s crude oil NGPL (Natural Gas Plant Liquids) and other liquids production reached a total production of 1,863.4 thousand barrels per day (b/d) in 2023, down from 1.9 million b/d in 2022. The exports of crude oil and condensate have remained around 800,000 b/d since 2017 down from 1 million b/d in 2015. Most of the exports are directed to Asia (China. Thailand, South Korea, Singapore) and smaller amounts to UAE and other countries.    

Regarding the production of crude oil, the annual production of Qatar has been reduced from 852,000 barrels per day in 2008 to 616.000 barrels per day in 2022. The cause of the reduction is the fact that Qatar’s oil fields are mature. According to estimates Qatar can continue the production of crude oil for over 50 years at current levels. Qatar’s oil consumption reached about 292,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2022 increased from about 260,000 b/d in 2020.

In late 2022 Qatar had the capacity to process 80,000 b/d of crude oil and 349,000 b/d of condensates in its three refineries. The refineries are: Umm Said/Mesaieed (80,000b/d crude oil distillation unit and 57,000 b/d condensate splitter), Laffan Refinery 1 (146,000 b/d condensate splitter processing condensate from the North Field), Laffan Refinery 2 (146,000 b/d condensate splitter processing condensate from the North Field).

In an attempt to reduce its dependency on petroleum, Qatar started to develop its natural gas resources in the early 1990s. In order to develop these resources Qatar had to borrow heavily, but high petroleum prices in the early 21^st century helped the economy to develop and payback the loans.

Qatar’s estimated proved natural gas reserves were 843 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) (23,871.10 Billion cubic meters -Bcm) as of December 2022, most of it located in the offshore North Field which allow Qatar to maintain its current production for another 132 years. The natural gas production of Qatar in 2023 reached 171 bcm and remained almost flat over that year. Qatar holds 11% of the world’s proved natural gas reserves, and almost 30% of the Middle East’s reserves. The country accounts for 4% of global production, is the sixth-largest dry natural gas producer in the world behind U.S.A, Russia, Iran, China and Canada, is the second-largest LNG exporter in the world behind U.S.A, and the third-largest holder of natural gas reserves in the world in 2021.

Qatar’s vast natural gas reserves are located in the giant offshore North Gas Field, which is known as South Pars on the Iranian side of the Persian Gulf.

The Qatari Government developed the natural gas resources through joint projects with major international oil and gas companies, focusing mostly on the North Field, which the country shares with Iran. The North Gas Field was discovered in 1971 and it lies mainly offshore to the north-east of the Qatar peninsula under water depths ranging from 15 to 70 meters.

The North Gas Field covers about 6,000 square kilometres, and it is the largest single concentration of non-associated natural gas in the world, with total proven reserves of more than 900 trillion cubic feet representing 10% of world total.

The increased production of natural gas and the important export potentials led the Government of Qatar to devote more resources in order to develop the infrastructure of the country to process natural gas into the export product known as Liquified Natural Gas (LNG). For this purpose, a subsidiary company QatarGas (now QatarEnergy LNG) was established in 1984 and eight years later in 1992 the company started the exports.

In 1997 Qatar began exporting LNG to Spain produced at QatarGas train 1.

In total QatarEnergy LNG operates 14 LNG trains which were inaugurated between 1996-2011, six of which are mega trains each with a production capacity of 7.8 Million tonnes per Annum (mpta), two domestic sales gas production facilities, two condensate refineries, two helium production facilities, the Ras Laffan Terminal Operations, 24 purpose built conventional vessels, 31 Q-Flex and 14-Q-max long-term charter vessels.  

These 14 LNG trains have a production capacity of 3.7 Billion Cubic Feet (bcf) per year which is going to be increased by 2,305 bcf per year with the introduction of 6 more LNG trains of which 4 Trains (North Field East Expansion Project) in 2025 and 2 Trains (North Field South Expansion Project) in 2027.         

Currently natural gas has surpassed petroleum as the largest share of the Qatari Government revenues and the country’s GDP. The natural gas industry represents 2/3 of the GDP of Qatar and 81% of export earnings in 2021. Qatar exported in 2021 nearly 3.6 Tcf of Natural Gas mostly to Asia and Europe and small mount (0.7 Tcf) of natural gas to UAE and Oman via the Dolphin Pipeline underwater pipeline.       

The largest producers of natural gas in Qatar are QatarEnergy, Exxon Mobil and Shell. QatarEnergy was the largest producer of natural gas in 2023 with output up by 3% on 2022.

There are 14 natural gas producing fields in Qatar, all located offshore. The Arabian Gulf has the majority of the natural gas fields in the country with 13. `

Hydrocarbon export revenues rose from US$47 Billion in 2020 to nearly US$77 Billion in 2021.

Exxon Mobil was the second-largest producer, with output up by 0.78%, and Shell was third with a decrease of 7% on the previous year.

Largest natural gas producing fields in Qatar (2023)

Field Name	Constituent Entity	Production Start Year	Operator	Natural Gas Production in 2023 (mmcfd)
RasGas 3	Arabian Gulf	2009	QatarEnergy LNG	2,257
Qatargas 2	Arabian Gulf	2009	QatarEnergy	2,012
Dolphin Project	Arabian Gulf	2007	Dolphin Energy	1,999
RasGas 2	Arabian Gulf	2004	QatarEnergy LNG	1,906
Pearl	Arabian Gulf	2011	Shell	1,449
Barzan	Arabian Gulf	2020	QatarEnergy	1,400
Al-Khaleej Gas Project-2	Arabian Gulf	2010	Exxon Mobil	1,270
Qatargas 3	Arabian Gulf	2010	QatarEnergy LNG	1,250
Qatargas 1	Arabian Gulf	1997	QatarEnergy	1,209
Qatargas 4	Arabian Gulf	2011	QatarEnergy	1,064

 

Largest natural gas fields under development in Qatar (2024 – 2028)

Field name	Constituent entity	Operator	Status	Start year	Natural gas Production (mmcfd)
North Field East	Arabian Gulf	QatarEnergy	Planned	2026	334,143
North Field West	Arabian Gulf	QatarEnergy	Announced	2028	139,733
North Field South	Arabian Gulf	QatarEnergy	Planned	2027	139,475

Qatar Vision 2030

Several years ago, the Government of Qatar decided to start a procedure in order to diversify the economy of the country focusing on manufacturing, logistics, information, and communication technology (ICT) construction, and finally tourism.  In October 2008 the country inaugurated the ambitious National Development Strategy “Qatar Vision 2030”. The aim of the new Strategy is to turn Qatar into as State capable of achieving sustainable development through four key pillars that include human, social, economic and environmental development.

The new Strategy will prioritize competitiveness, the strengthening of innovation and the long-term sustainability of the Qatari economy targeting a GDP growth of 4% annually.

The declared goals of diversifying the economy are:

1. The development of the metal and chemical manufacturing,
2. Tourist sector,
3. Strengthening the role of Qatar as an international logistic center,
4. Improvement of fields of digital and finance services,
5. Social progress through food security, the development of the medical sector and education as means of enhancing local human capital and increasing labour productivity.   

Qatar’s National Vision (QNV) 2030 addresses five major challenges:

1. Modernisation and preservation of traditions
2. The needs of the current generation and of future generations
3. Managed growth and uncontrolled expansion
4. The size and quality of the expatriate labor force and the selected path of development
5. Economic growth, social development and environmental management   

The National Vision 2030 is accomplished through three National Development Strategies the,

1. First National Development Strategy 2011-2016,
2. Second National Development Strategy 2018-2022 and
3. Third National Development Strategy 2024-2030.  

The First National Development Strategy (NDS) 2011-2016 aims to balance five major challenges identified in QNV 2030 which are:

• Maudling modernization around the preservation of Qatari culture and traditions
• Balancing the needs of this generation and those of future generations
• Managing growth and avoiding uncontrolled expansion
• Matching the size and quality of the expatriate labor force to the selected path of development
• Aligning economic growth with social development and environmental management

The First NDS focused on establishing national champions in order to build Qatar’s brand on the global stage

The Second National Development Strategy (NDS) 2018-2022 enhances:

• The role of the international cooperation and aims at strengthening Qatar’s regional and international status,
• Upgrading international partnerships and contributing actively to regional and international peace and security.
• It also contains a chapter on Performance Management, which provides a tool for monitoring implementation paths,
• Ensuring a smooth and efficient follow-up, and
• Facilitating the timely elimination of obstacles.

During the second phase of the NDS the Government of Qatar invested over US$82.41 Billion in state-of-the-art infrastructure ensuring the successful delivery of the FIFA World Cup in 2022. The second phase of the program set the foundation for further economic diversification by enhancing the country’s infrastructure capabilities.   

The Third National Development Strategy (NDS) 2024-2030 has seven key strategic national outcomes for the next 7 years.

These are:

• Sustainable Economic Growth
• Fiscal Sustainability
• Future ready Workforce
• Cohesive Society
• Quality of Life
• Environmental Sustainability
• Government Excellence  

During this phase Qatar is focusing on the economic diversification of the country. This involves empowering the private sector, particularly the financial sector developing human capital, and introducing policies to increase the ease of doing business.

The main goal of this phase of the program is to boost non-hydrocarbon revenue by 4% annually until 2030, focusing on:

• expanding manufacturing tourism,
• logistics,
• education,
• health,
• food and agriculture,
• financial services, and
• information technology and digital services in addition to
• future clusters around critical technologies and national assets

In addition to that, Qatar aims to achieve average economic growth of 4% the attraction of US$100 Billion in foreign direct investment and the establishment of Qatar as a frontrunner in business environment and digital competitiveness.  

Although the Government of Qatar aims to diversify the economy of the country, Doha continues to excel in the energy sector. Recently the Government of Qatar announced a substantial LNG production expansion program which aims to the increase of the LNG production by 85% reaching to total output of 142 million tons per annum by 2030.    

Gross Domestic Product

The organization of the FIFA 2022 World Cup, as well as the high hydrocarbon prices helped Qatar to achieve in 2022 a robust growth of the GDP by 4.2% (in 2015 constant US$ prices). According to the World Bank the GDP of Qatar in 2022 was US$236.26 Billion (in current US$ prices) and US$170.95 Billion (in 2015 constant US$ prices) increased from US$170.95 Billion (in current US$ prices) and US$164.04 Billion (in 2015 constant US$ prices) in 2021 respectively. The structure of the Qatari GDP for the Financial Year 2022 was: 36.8% Services, 63% Industry (including oil and gas) and 0.2% Agriculture.   

Although the economy continued to expand in 2023, the rate of growth that year was much slower and reached 1.6% driven mainly by the growth of the hydrocarbon sector (3.2%) and to a much lesser extent the growth of the non-hydrocarbon sector (0.6%). The latter was supported by new infrastructure projects and a vibrant tourism sector of post-World Cup.  According to the IMF the GDP is estimated to increase by 2% in 2024 because of softer oil demand.    

International Trade

Qatar’s external sector performance in 2023 marked a noticeable decrease compared to the 2022. This was the result of moderate oil prices and the end of the FIFA 2022 World Cup related activities as well as weaker global demand. This in turn showed a contraction in Qatar’s foreign trade balance year-on-year. Qatar’s exports and re-exports in 2023 were contracted by 25.4% alongside a 6.1% decrease of the imports against figures from 2022. This development led to a 29.9% decrease in the foreign trade surplus from US$97.4 Billion in 2022 to US$68.3 Billion in 2023.

In 2022 Qatar exported goods of a total value of US$131 Billion and imported US$33.5 Billion, while in 2023 the exports reached US$97.8 Billion and the imports US$31.4 Billion.

According to the World Bank minerals fuels, oils and distillation products represented over 87.2% of the country’s exports in 2022, while chemical products accounted for 6.1%. In terms of product category machinery and transport equipment constituted the main import of Qatar, 35.2% of the total imports, ahead of miscellaneous manufactured articles (22%) manufactured goods (14%), and food and live animals (11.3%). The main export partners of Qatar in 2022 were China (15.9%), India (11.6%), Japan (10.9%), and South Korea (9.6%). Qatar’s leading suppliers in 2022 were China (16.2%), the U.S.A (14.6%), India (6.2%), Italy (5.7%) and Germany (5%).   

According to the Central Bank of Qatar the oil related exports in 2023 made up the highest share of 86.1% of the total exports. The geographic distribution of the exports for 2023 indicates that 19.7% of total exports went to China, followed by South Korea with 12.6%, India, Japan and Singapore with 12%, 8% and 7.3% respectively of the total.  

Regarding the imports, in 2023 Machinery and Transport Equipment posted the highest share of 42% followed by Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles with 16.1% of total imports. The breakdown of imports by country of origin reveals that 16.1% of the imported merchandise during 2023 came from the U.S.A followed by China with 14.7%, Italy with 6.6%, India with 5.8% and Germany with 5.7% of total imports. 

According to the IMF the volume of Qatar’s exports is set to continue decreasing in 2024 by 2.6% against figures noted in 2023. This trend is expected to be reversed between 2025 and 2029 with an average growth of 7.4% amid improving global economic conditions the diversification of the economy of Qatar.            

According to the IMF the volume of imports of goods in Qatar is set to increase by 12.9% in 2024 and by an average of 6.1% in the following five years. The increase in imports paired with a continued decrease in exports during 2024 leads to a forecasted further decrease in balance of trade surplus during the year.

State Budget

The suspension of LNG shipments via the Red Sea in 2023 due to the escalation of hostilities between the Houthi and the international community, forced the LNG vessels to deviate around the Cape of Good Hope. As a result, to that the cost of transportation increased not to mention additional expense due to scrambled schedules. This development affected the oil and gas revenues (constituting 83% of total public revenues) which was reduced by 16.5%.

This withdraw of the oil and gas revenues led to the reduction of the public revenues of Qatar, which contracted by 14.6% in 2023 against a surge of 53.7% in 2022 moving from QR 297.8 Billion (USD81.8 Billion) in 2022 to QR 254.4 Billion (USD69.9 Billion) in 2023.

Total public expenditures increased moderately by 1.3% in 2023 moving from QR 208.7 Billion (USD57.3 Billion) in 2022 to QR 211.4 Billion (USD58.1 Billion) in 2023, as the Government of Qatar maintains fiscal prudence.

As a result, Qatar ran in 2023 a State budget surplus of QR 43.1 Billion (USD11.8 Billion) against a much larger budget surplus of QR 89 Billion in 2022.According to the estimate of the IMF the fiscal surplus in 2022 was 10.4% of the GDP reduced to 5.5% of the GDP in 2023, noting that the non-hydrocarbon primary balance improved by more than 2 percentage points of non-hydrocarbon GDP indicating continued fiscal consolidation.

According to the IMF estimate the General Government Debt in 2023 was 40% of the GDP, down from 42.5% in 2022 and 58.4% in 2021.

In December 2023, Qatar approved the 2024 State Budget. The new State Budget is estimated to have total revenues of QR 202 billion decreased by 11.4% to the estimate of the 2023 State Budget. The reduction of the public revenues is mainly explained by a higher conservative average oil price assumption of USD60 per barrel for 2024 instead of USD65 per barrel in 2023, based on the international institutions estimates for oil prices in 2024 and the conservative estimates for oil and gas revenues.         

According to estimates, the oil and gas revenues for the year 2024 are expected to reach QR 159 Billion compared to QR 186 Billion in 2023. This represents a decrease of 14.5% while the non-oil revenues are expected to reach QR 43 Billion, marking a 2.4% rise.

Total spending in 2024 is estimated to reach QR 200.9 Billion up by 1% compared to the 2023 budget.

The State Budget surplus for the year 2024 is expected to reach QR1.1 Billion, significantly reduced compared to the surplus of the 2023 when it reached QR 29 Billion.

Qatar is set to pay off approximately QR 7.3 Billion of debt in 2024, resulting in a projected cash deficit of QR 6,2 Billion. The 2024 State Budget is structured around four pillars which are: allocating resources for the 3^rd National Development Strategy (NDS3) in order to enhance non-oil sectors, setting targets within the medium-term budget, allocating resources to meet Qatar’s spending needs in order to adhere to financing plans, and finally supporting efforts to diversify the economy by enhancing public private partnerships.