Cox Automotive Leaves 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast Unchanged as September Volume Drops; Year-to-Date Sales Up Less Than 1% Compared to 2023
-- With fewer selling days month over month and year over year, September's
sales volume is forecast to be lower by 16.1% versus last month and fall
11.0% from one year ago.
-- The new-vehicle sales pace in September is expected to finish near 15.9
million, up 0.1 million from last September's 15.8 million pace and up
from August's 15.1 million.
-- Cox Automotive holds its full year forecast steady at 15.7 million, with
the new-vehicle sales pace in Q3 expected to be 15.6 million, a decline
from Q2.
ATLANTA, Sept. 25, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Gauging the true success of new-vehicle sales this month will be especially challenging due to the market calendar. New-vehicle sales in September are expected to tumble more than 16% from August and 11% from last September. Still, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to rise to 15.9 million, up from August's 15.1 million level and slightly higher than last September's 15.8 million pace.
According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: "The September sales pace is expected to improve from a rather slow August, maintaining the trend of large swings we've witnessed this year. With the election season fully upon us, more volatility seems likely through the end of the year. However, the recent interest rate cut will help household finances, and automakers are being more aggressive with discounts, so we remain optimistic that new-vehicle sales could improve marginally through the final quarter of 2024."
The September new-vehicle sales data will be influenced heavily by the large differences in the number of selling days. There are only 23 selling days this September, five fewer than August's 28 days and three fewer than last September. Significant statistical adjustments help make comparisons more accurate, but they are still challenging.
Healthy new-vehicle inventory and higher incentives are helping maintain sales. New-vehicle sales incentives have been increasing through 2024, with August incentives estimated by Kelley Blue Book to be at the highest level since the first half of 2021. New-vehicle transaction prices have also been under pressure, helping improve new-vehicle affordability. Both dynamics - higher incentive and continued price pressure - are expected to positively influence September's sales volume.
September 2024 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Sales Forecast
(1) Market Share
Segment Sep-24 Sep-23 Aug-24 YOY% MOM% Sep-24 Aug-24 MOM
Mid-Size Car 63,000 81,298 74,572 -22.5 % -15.5 % 5.3 % 5.3 % 0.0 %
Compact Car 95,000 93,909 109,872 1.2 % -13.5 % 8.0 % 7.8 % 0.2 %
Compact SUV/Crossover 205,000 234,872 244,555 -12.7 % -16.2 % 17.2 % 17.3 % 0.0 %
Full-Size Pickup Truck 165,000 180,020 192,904 -8.3 % -14.5 % 13.9 % 13.6 % 0.3 %
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover 190,000 216,899 230,307 -12.4 % -17.5 % 16.0 % 16.2 % -0.3 %
Other Segments 472,000 529,650 565,327 -10.9 % -16.5 % 39.7 % 39.9 % -0.2 %
Grand Total 1,190,000 1,336,648 1,417,537 -11.0 % -16.1 %
1
Cox Automotive Industry Insights data
Honda, With a 10% Sales Gain in Q3, Holds Rank as a Top 5 Seller; Stellantis Struggles
New-vehicle sales volumes in Q3 are forecast by Cox Automotive to be lower by 2.1% year over year and also lower compared to the second quarter of 2024. Sales declines at GM, Toyota and Stellantis have led the market lower. Year-to-date New-vehicle sales are expected to end Q3 higher by less than 1%. Cox Automotive's full-year forecast for new-vehicle sales remains unchanged at 15.7 million, higher year over year by less than 2%.
Added Chesbrough, "Honda is expected to see even more growth this quarter, thanks to another strong quarter of CRV and Accord sales. So far this year, Honda has gained nearly 1% market share and has moved up into the Top 5 in U.S. sales among the major automakers, knocking Stellantis down to No. 6."
Q3 and Year-To-Date 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast(1)
Manufacturer Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Q2 2024 YOY% YTD 2024 YTD 2023 YOY% YTD Share
General Motor 648,043 669,234 691,680 -3.2 % 1,929,778 1,957,815 -1.4 % 16.4 %
Toyota 547,460 590,296 621,549 -7.3 % 1,734,106 1,628,817 6.5 % 14.7 %
Ford Motor Co. 509,310 497,108 532,466 2.5 % 1,546,591 1,496,874 3.3 % 13.1 %
Hyundai Group 433,109 430,302 438,602 0.7 % 1,250,914 1,250,482 0.0 % 10.6 %
Honda Motor Co. 375,281 339,143 356,457 10.7 % 1,065,562 970,675 9.8 % 9.0 %
Stellantis 301,293 380,563 344,993 -20.8 % 978,827 1,183,538 -17.3 % 8.3 %
Nissan Mitsubishi 236,927 239,074 259,448 -0.9 % 777,513 764,785 1.7 % 6.6 %
Subaru 165,199 163,131 169,447 1.3 % 487,642 467,220 4.4 % 4.1 %
VW 166,718 167,279 170,603 -0.3 % 477,077 456,746 4.5 % 4.0 %
Tesla 152,829 156,621 164,264 -2.4 % 457,280 493,513 -7.3 % 3.9 %
Mazda 116,786 88,834 102,383 31.5 % 319,272 272,617 17.1 % 2.7 %
Mercedes-Benz 91,991 90,011 95,596 2.2 % 270,210 261,731 3.2 % 2.3 %
BMW 78,761 91,849 97,135 -14.2 % 266,740 277,132 -3.7 % 2.3 %
Others 73,406 76,334 76,388 -3.8 % 225,572 203,215 11.0 % 1.9 %
NATION 3,897,112 3,979,779 4,121,011 -2.1 % 11,787,083 11,685,160 0.9 % 100.0 %
1
Cox Automotive Industry Insights data
While the overall new-vehicle market is forecast to be slightly higher year over year at the end of Q3, the gains have mostly been on the fleet and leasing sides of the business. Retail purchases year-to-date in 2024 - vehicles bought with cash or via an auto loan and representing nearly 60% of all sales - are forecast to be lower by 4% compared to 2023. Fleet sales year to date in 2024 are tracking higher by about 7% year over year, while leasing is higher by 24%, thanks in large part to strong electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid lease offers.
All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of?first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader(®), Kelley Blue Book(®), Manheim(®), vAuto(®), Dealertrack(®), NextGear Capital(TM), CentralDispatch(®) and FleetNet America(®). Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22?billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc?on LinkedIn.
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SOURCE Cox Automotive
