Cox Automotive Forecast: U.S. Auto Sales Continue V-Shaped Recovery in Third Quarter
ATLANTA, Sept. 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Auto sales in the U.S. are forecast to continue their COVID-19 recovery in September as the new-vehicle sales pace should increase over last month. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is likely to reach 15.5 million, a modest improvement over August's 15.2 million, and the fifth consecutive month of sales pace improvement after April's historic low, according to a forecast released today by Cox Automotive.
Sales volume is expected to be down just 0.3% compared to year-ago levels; however, September 2020 had two additional selling days and a Labor Day weekend compared to September 2019, so a relatively strong year-over-year volume comparison was expected.
New-vehicle sales are performing well considering the historically low inventory levels. According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: "Available Inventory is far below last year's levels, yet sales continue to show surprising strength. Going into the fourth quarter, the key question is: Can this continue? Clearly new vehicle buyers haven't been hit as hard as other consumers during this recession, so demand is likely to remain stable over the near-term."
Closing out the third quarter, year-to-date U.S. auto sales volume is forecast to be down 19.6%. Retail sales are holding up relatively well compared to lease;fleet activity - rental, commercial and government - remains depressed.
One potential issue for the fourth quarter is lack of new product due to the model year roll-over delay. There are only a handful of model year 2021 vehicles in the marketplace right now, and vehicle buyers may be surprised when they go shopping this fall for the latest and greatest products. Currently, only 3% of available inventory is model year 2021. At this point last year, 25% of dealer supply was model year 2020. Factory shutdowns have delayed many products and limited availability of others. This headwind is likely to increase through at least the remainder of the year.
September 2020 Sales Forecast Highlights
-- New light-vehicle sales are forecast to fall to 1.275 million units,
down 0.3% compared to September 2019. When compared to last month, sales
are expected to decrease by 50,000 units, or nearly 3.7%.
-- The SAAR in September 2020 is estimated to be 15.5 million, far below
last year's 17.1 million level, but an improvement from last month's
15.2 million sales pace.
-- All segments are expected to have lower month-over-month sales in
September, while SUVs and pickup trucks are expected to see
year-over-year increases.
September 2020 Sales Forecast by Major Segment
Sales Forecast(1) Market Share
Segment
Sep-20
Sep-19
Aug-20 YOY% MOM% Sep-20 Aug-20 MOM
---
Mid-Size Car 90,000 101,211 93,626 -11.1% -3.9% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0%
---
Compact Car 90,000 102,036 95,861 -11.8% -6.1% 7.1% 7.2% -0.2%
---
Compact SUV/Crossover 215,000 210,050 224,588 2.4% -4.3% 16.9% 17.0% -0.1%
---
Full-Size Pickup Truck 210,000 196,563 215,452 6.8% -2.5% 16.5% 16.3% 0.2%
---
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover 210,000 194,015 224,993 8.2% -6.7% 16.5% 17.0% -0.5%
---
Grand Total(2) 1,275,000 1,279,193 1,323,514 -0.3% -3.7%
---
Q3 2020 Sales and Year-to-Date Forecast
Sales Forecast(1)
OEM Q3 2020 Q3 2019 YOY%
YTD 2020
YTD 2019 YOY%
---
BMW 71,723 86,157 -16.8% 189,444 260,180 -27.2%
---
Daimler 75,816 89,766 -15.5% 201,350 253,683 -20.6%
---
Fiat
Chrysler 498,249 565,034 -11.8% 1,312,103 1,661,074 -21.0%
---
Ford 529,759 576,006 -8.0% 1,476,690 1,807,460 -18.3%
---
GM 636,264 735,651 -13.5% 1,741,960 2,144,972 -18.8%
---
Honda 391,375 429,214 -8.8% 983,662 1,206,209 -18.5%
---
Hyundai Kia 343,149 336,684 1.9% 886,623 984,795 -10.0%
---
J-LR 20,869 26,666 -21.7% 69,213 89,071 -22.3%
---
Mazda 70,174 69,612 0.8% 199,043 208,167 -4.4%
---
Mitsubishi 18,759 24,474 -23.4% 66,519 95,574 -30.4%
---
Nissan 228,685 327,354 -30.1% 663,619 1,044,390 -36.5%
---
Subaru 164,343 185,804 -11.6% 431,452 525,330 -17.9%
---
Tesla 54,800 54,700 0.2% 136,500 138,575 -1.5%
---
Toyota 546,325 627,194 -12.9% 1,440,101 1,779,302 -19.1%
---
Volvo 30,075 27,169 10.7% 72,811 77,289 -5.8%
---
VW 145,522 165,383 -12.0% 389,629 481,688 -19.1%
---
Grand
Total(2) 3,825,887 4,326,868 -11.6% 10,260,719 12,757,759 -19.6%
---
1
Cox Automotive Industry Insights data
(2)
Total includes segments not shown
All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. makes buying, selling, owning and using cars easier for everyone. The global company's 34,000-plus team members and family of brands, including Autotrader(®), Clutch Technologies, Dealer.com(®), Dealertrack(®), Kelley Blue Book(®), Manheim(®), NextGear Capital(®), VinSolutions(®), vAuto(®) and Xtime(®),( )are passionate about helping millions of car shoppers, 40,000 auto dealer clients across five continents and many others throughout the automotive industry thrive for generations to come. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based company with annual revenues of $21 billion. www.coxautoinc.com
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SOURCE Cox Automotive
